345: Predictive Indicators & Data Breaches w/ Paul Dank

Transcript

WEBVTT

00:00:00.059 --> 00:00:10.855
Steve actually had the Antiguan Coast Guard called out and they stopped the ship and they kicked he and the wife off the ship and they're banned from the cruise line forever.

00:00:11.680 --> 00:00:13.628
And none of that was posted directly by him.

00:00:13.628 --> 00:00:26.327
I'm pretty sure he doesn't want his employer to see that Works for big companies, but it's there, and so where you let me look dictates how much I'm going to find, and then from there it's not easy.

00:00:26.327 --> 00:00:32.384
It's not as easy as getting the tech savvy kid that works in the office of the club to look on Facebook.

00:00:32.384 --> 00:00:33.207
Hey, everyone.

00:00:33.479 --> 00:00:41.911
Welcome back to Private Club Radio, your industry source for news trends, updates and conversations all in the world of private clubs and high-end hospitality.

00:00:41.911 --> 00:00:48.654
And when we say private clubs, we mean country clubs, city clubs, golf clubs, yacht clubs, athletic clubs, military clubs, all the clubs.

00:00:48.654 --> 00:00:50.908
I'm your host, denny Corby.

00:00:50.908 --> 00:00:52.073
Thanks for being here.

00:00:52.073 --> 00:00:53.079
And back on again.

00:00:53.118 --> 00:01:07.320
Today we have our friend Paul Denk from over at Kenneth's Member Vetting and we zero in on the pivotal roles that predictive behaviors in member vetting play in the member application process.

00:01:07.320 --> 00:01:22.867
Paul and I also touch on the complexities of the member removal process, legal nuances for conducting background checks and some of the potential risks clubs face when they rely on informal sources for their vetting processes.

00:01:22.867 --> 00:01:31.391
And we're going to learn on the different levels and packages a little bit that Kennis offers when it comes to your member vetting.

00:01:31.391 --> 00:01:41.572
If you don't know who Kennis is, they are a specialized intelligence gathering division of ASG Investigations serving private clubs in their member applicant vetting processes.

00:01:41.572 --> 00:01:51.632
So if you're interested in discovering how fact-based member vetting could protect your club's reputation and integrity, head on over to membervettingcom and set up a consult with our friend Paul Denk.

00:01:51.632 --> 00:01:53.245
And now onto the show.

00:01:54.099 --> 00:01:56.308
There's 70 models to a lot of these clubs.

00:01:56.308 --> 00:02:03.253
Some are exclusive by virtue of being that top 5% of the clubs in terms of price point.

00:02:03.253 --> 00:02:12.367
You know, come on, I mean the best GMs that I work with say that we help with their culture.

00:02:16.860 --> 00:02:18.366
And oh damn okay.

00:02:18.366 --> 00:02:26.123
So I was going to say because that leads right into predictive information, but I wanted to talk about Diddy.

00:02:26.123 --> 00:02:27.866
Yeah, we'll come back to it.

00:02:27.866 --> 00:02:29.207
No, I already hit recording.

00:02:29.207 --> 00:02:43.801
I was like, oh, this is going to be a perfect segue, but no, we were chatting and I brought up Diddy and just because it's like a relevant topic now, and what?

00:02:43.801 --> 00:02:44.787
Because you know, you know I do magic and stuff.

00:02:44.787 --> 00:02:49.189
So what you're saying about predicting the future, it's not predicting the future, it was predictive information.

00:02:49.954 --> 00:03:02.830
Yeah, well, what we do is provide information and there's two ways that we provide it Reactively, when something bad has happened and somebody says can you help us get our arms around the extent of this and who's at fault and you know what led to it.

00:03:02.830 --> 00:03:06.242
Right, that's reactive In terms of the club space.

00:03:06.242 --> 00:03:13.989
It's proactive and the whole thing is based on the same tenants that you have a college application for, the same tenants that you would have a.

00:03:13.989 --> 00:03:17.600
You know that you would have pre-employment screening for.

00:03:17.600 --> 00:03:23.252
It's that past actions and facts are indicative of future behavior.

00:03:23.252 --> 00:03:27.911
You know, and I've said, I think on your show that I'm an optimist.

00:03:27.911 --> 00:03:36.542
I'm not really an optimist at all, but I say I'm an optimist and I believe that people can always turn a new leaf, except that they don't, you know.

00:03:36.542 --> 00:03:41.280
And so we do have those rare moments where somebody actually figures it out and changes.

00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:42.282
Is that?

00:03:42.903 --> 00:03:53.745
Guessing when that's going to happen is probably not in anybody's best interest, whether it's membership in a club or for a job or any other reason that you would met someone and associations are really good at this.

00:03:53.764 --> 00:03:55.430
They've got standards for a reason.

00:03:55.430 --> 00:04:03.199
If somebody isn't meeting the standards, now's the time, don't let them in when it comes to the club world, you know, removing somebody is a nightmare.

00:04:03.199 --> 00:04:06.444
When it comes to the club world, you know, removing somebody is a nightmare.

00:04:06.444 --> 00:04:12.014
There's usually very you know very detailed process you have to go through, which involves disciplining the person in second try and third try.

00:04:12.014 --> 00:04:16.069
Each club is different, but that process is a mess.

00:04:16.069 --> 00:04:27.461
And so when you have somebody who shouldn't have gotten in in the first place, wow, what a waste of energy and resources, what a hit to the reputation of the club, all unnecessary.

00:04:27.461 --> 00:04:33.661
If you actually looked at facts and said we can't just rely on others vouching for people.

00:04:33.661 --> 00:04:45.351
And there's a really um, there's a really good book out there that talks about prediction and have you heard of the book um by nam Taleb called Anti-Fragile?

00:04:47.101 --> 00:04:48.326
The name rings a bell.

00:04:49.060 --> 00:04:49.300
Okay.

00:04:49.721 --> 00:04:51.386
Taleb has written a number of books.

00:04:51.386 --> 00:04:53.370
He's incredibly well-read.

00:04:53.370 --> 00:04:55.062
The business community is all over him.

00:04:55.062 --> 00:05:07.482
I think anybody that's into behavioral analysis knows him and his work and whether you love him or hate him, anti-fragile really points out it's a very long book.

00:05:07.482 --> 00:05:10.029
It's a little bit of a technical book.

00:05:10.029 --> 00:05:11.855
You can't be reading this in bed.

00:05:11.855 --> 00:05:14.646
Before you fall asleep and soak it in, you need to be focused.

00:05:14.745 --> 00:05:32.161
But in the end, what it says is humans are really really bad at predicting things and there are a whole bunch of situations that we skew, whether or not they're fragile right, meaning the odds of it failing and not working out the way I predict are very high versus things that are very low.

00:05:32.161 --> 00:05:35.208
Sports betting is very, very fragile.

00:05:35.208 --> 00:05:45.389
I might think I know all about who's going to win the college football playoff next year, but I don't and I'm biased toward teams and people and I have a lack of information.

00:05:45.389 --> 00:05:47.548
But I tell myself no way my team's going to win.

00:05:47.548 --> 00:05:49.906
So that's a little bit of an example.

00:05:49.906 --> 00:06:17.274
But this is no different for wealthy people that are on a member committee, on a board at a club, deciding someone's state whether it's a membership director, whether it's a GM we're really bad at predicting things, and when we have less information meaning it's all information controlled by the applicant, maybe a little bit of contribution from other members in the club they don't have all the information.

00:06:17.274 --> 00:06:24.021
And now we're doing this feel-good prediction that the person's going to work out and we just chose not to have facts.

00:06:24.021 --> 00:06:32.254
So it's kind of crazy, but the anti-fragile narrative plays out over and over again in this case.

00:06:32.254 --> 00:06:50.562
That's why, if you look at something and I go back to this because I think it works really well what it takes to get accepted into a public university, think about the process and all the documentation and all the review that they do and all the money they spend looking over those applications, because they actually know what's going to be successful at a university.

00:06:50.562 --> 00:06:54.620
They have really good predictive measures of whether you're going to make it or not.

00:06:55.283 --> 00:06:59.521
And, yeah, there's always going to be the person that flakes out and you wouldn't expect it to.

00:06:59.521 --> 00:07:08.913
You know the kid who has really good grades and really good behavior and then gets to the open light and space of being in a public university, right, and ends up drinking themselves out in the first term.

00:07:08.913 --> 00:07:21.136
It happens, but more than likely if you have someone that hasn't been a good student that hasn't behaved a certain way, they're going to wash out in a much greater proportion than the good students.

00:07:21.136 --> 00:07:23.668
So universities really have this down.

00:07:23.668 --> 00:07:25.764
Clubs just haven't embraced the fact.

00:07:25.764 --> 00:07:31.274
They've said we're kind of void of information and that information goes a long way.

00:07:31.274 --> 00:07:56.091
So the predictive value is I want to believe that you're saying you're going to be an amazing member, but I'd also like to see some actual reasons that I should believe that you're a physician to do that and when there are things that we find in that background information and in the OSIP research that show us that they actually behave differently, you know that that's the predictive value right there.

00:07:58.281 --> 00:07:59.444
This isn't every like.

00:07:59.444 --> 00:08:03.632
How often do you find weird stuff?

00:08:03.632 --> 00:08:05.531
I shouldn't say weird stuff Like how often.

00:08:05.531 --> 00:08:07.521
I think you've told me that before.

00:08:07.521 --> 00:08:09.848
Most people are like.

00:08:09.848 --> 00:08:10.973
Most things you find are.

00:08:10.973 --> 00:08:14.081
You know it's all good, everything matches up.

00:08:14.081 --> 00:08:16.209
It's the few and far between.

00:08:16.990 --> 00:08:17.192
Yeah.

00:08:17.192 --> 00:08:23.725
So a little bit of a complicated question because we do different, varying degrees of vetting for clubs.

00:08:23.725 --> 00:08:29.995
So we have some clubs that are very, very stringent and have us go, you know, soup to nuts, through everything we can.

00:08:29.995 --> 00:08:32.948
Others are much more restrictive on the data we look at.

00:08:32.948 --> 00:08:41.193
What I can tell you is that the majority of people that apply for membership clubs there is no derogatory information or contrary information.

00:08:41.193 --> 00:08:43.768
Then we get into varying shades, right.

00:08:43.768 --> 00:08:46.442
So you put something on your application.

00:08:46.442 --> 00:08:50.110
It looks to me like it was a misrepresentation.

00:08:50.110 --> 00:08:56.751
You tried to look like you were you know all that and a bag of chips, and you really weren't even a bag of chips.

00:08:56.751 --> 00:08:58.782
So, but that's one or two data points.

00:08:59.663 --> 00:09:08.861
Then you get things like I see behaviors that you probably wouldn't engage in at the club, certainly when you're trying to get in.

00:09:08.861 --> 00:09:17.716
But if you feel free to do these things in other environments and you've done them in the recent past well gosh, that doesn't bode very well.

00:09:17.716 --> 00:09:23.210
Maybe I have someone here who's going to be violating the decorum policy before they've even set foot in the door.

00:09:23.210 --> 00:09:44.048
And then you get into finding the behaviors that are not necessarily criminal, but they're indicative of the fact that I don't follow the rules, I don't do what I'm supposed to do, so some of it, I guess you could frame it as criminal, but it's things like how I drive.

00:09:44.048 --> 00:10:01.746
It's things like citations drive, it's things like citations, problems with insurance claims, right, and you get into aside from overt behaviors where someone is demonstrating insanity so got in big trouble because I jumped off the cruise ship.

00:10:02.682 --> 00:10:03.485
This is one that we had.

00:10:03.485 --> 00:10:05.307
I jumped off the cruise ship and this is this is one that we had.

00:10:05.307 --> 00:10:20.533
I jumped off the cruise ship and everybody was super angry and they had the whatever Antiguan Coast Guard out there and they stopped the ship and you know, OK, I mean really, you're grown up, You're 30 and you jumped off because it was hilarious.

00:10:20.533 --> 00:10:31.293
You know, and this isn't somebody who's like Steve-O from the Jackass series, this is somebody who sells insurance for a living and wants to join a golf club.

00:10:31.293 --> 00:10:36.331
If you're going to jump off a cruise ship when you get tuned up, what are you going to do with the club when you get tuned up Again?

00:10:36.331 --> 00:10:40.831
Maybe your club is okay with that, Maybe your club has different standards.

00:10:40.850 --> 00:10:55.707
But you look for those behavioral things that say I'm not going to to follow rules, I'm going to do what I want and and and it's not up to you and it's not up to you or kennis or anybody to decide who's good and who's bad.

00:10:55.748 --> 00:10:57.432
You're just presenting the information.

00:10:57.432 --> 00:10:57.653
It's.

00:10:57.653 --> 00:11:01.669
Ultimately the club can decide like oh, we don't care about that, uh so.

00:11:01.730 --> 00:11:17.542
So this is just the information that I, I think sometimes clubs look at something like this as it's more in depth and it's like, well, no, it's not, they're not telling anybody what, what to do, it's just hey, we're just finding the juicy information that's just out there, um and so.

00:11:17.542 --> 00:11:24.993
So here here, here's a how um, you know, with something like that, how difficult is that to find?

00:11:24.993 --> 00:11:35.243
And like so, like you know I'm trying to think of, like someone applies for membership at my club, how easy is it to find that, or how difficult, or you know.

00:11:35.243 --> 00:11:43.304
I guess that's another you know question there, but I'll let you answer sure.

00:11:43.647 --> 00:11:48.802
So again, it sort of depends on what the club is engaging me, how deep they're engaging us to look.

00:11:48.802 --> 00:12:07.033
I've talked previously about the fact that the information is not linear, meaning if you want to find out information about you or me or anyone else, you're going to get some information directly from me, things like my LinkedIn I put that up, I control that information, my Facebook.

00:12:07.033 --> 00:12:10.945
But really I'll give you the cruise ship jumper example.

00:12:10.945 --> 00:12:19.567
That was posted by a friend who was on the cruise and it's not tagged as being that member.

00:12:19.567 --> 00:12:25.538
So if I were on that person's social media I would see the hilarious guy jumping on.

00:12:25.538 --> 00:12:28.087
It doesn't say who it is.

00:12:28.087 --> 00:12:30.033
So we can identify who he is.

00:12:30.033 --> 00:12:31.797
The club can identify who he is.

00:12:31.797 --> 00:12:32.217
It's him.

00:12:32.924 --> 00:12:36.046
So finding that involved us looking into that sphere, right?

00:12:36.046 --> 00:12:42.916
So we have to go into buckets where we don't necessarily know there's going to be information and the information is going to be unstructured.

00:12:42.916 --> 00:12:45.505
When we find it, then we can present it.

00:12:45.505 --> 00:12:53.049
Now that you know also feeds into the breadcrumbs idea and that's that we find one and then we go to the next one and the next one, and the next one.

00:12:53.049 --> 00:12:59.370
So opening that up said OK, this person has a group of people and, by the way, we've got coinciding dates.

00:12:59.370 --> 00:13:00.735
These are the people that were on the ship.

00:13:00.735 --> 00:13:03.510
These are the people that also are friends with that person.

00:13:03.510 --> 00:13:05.437
Let's start quickly looking in those buckets.

00:13:05.437 --> 00:13:10.575
That's when we find the story of Dude and it's by the first name.

00:13:10.575 --> 00:13:12.217
We'll call him Steve.

00:13:12.217 --> 00:13:23.269
First name we'll call him steve.

00:13:23.269 --> 00:13:28.849
Steve, uh, actually had the, you know, antiguan coast guard called out and they stopped the ship and they kicked he and the wife off the ship and they're banned from the cruise line forever.

00:13:29.932 --> 00:13:35.787
Um, you know, and and none of that was posted directly by him I'm pretty sure he doesn't want his employer to see that.

00:13:35.787 --> 00:13:46.135
Right, right, works for big companies, of course, but it's there, and so where you let me look dictates how much I'm going to find, and then from there it's not easy.

00:13:46.135 --> 00:13:57.129
It's not as easy as getting the tech savvy kid that works in the in the office of the club to to look on Facebook in the office of the club.

00:13:57.129 --> 00:14:23.669
To look on Facebook Certainly do that, because sometimes that's a layup and you find the easy information, but that's what you're paying for a company like mine to do is to look for any and all facts that aren't easy to find and that takes the right training, the right equipment, access, and the craziest thing is how busy our R&D department is, because things are rolling out at a continuous basis, things like data breach data.

00:14:23.910 --> 00:14:28.960
Once it becomes public and it's out there, it's full of intimate details about things.

00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:31.850
But even these breaches that happened four or five years ago.

00:14:31.850 --> 00:14:44.033
We find all kinds of information from the data breach data which doesn't live anywhere, but if you have it, and you have it on a server and you download it every time data breach information is published.

00:14:44.033 --> 00:14:50.474
Well then, you've got a whole new repository of stuff that people tapping Google are never going to find, but it's public and it's laying around waiting to have.

00:14:50.664 --> 00:15:11.993
So, in terms of home gamers, thinking about doing what we do and being successful, limited opportunity can you briefly go into like so something like finding mr jumper here, what level package about is?

00:15:11.993 --> 00:15:13.115
Is that information getting?

00:15:13.115 --> 00:15:14.398
Is that more of like the?

00:15:14.398 --> 00:15:15.620
Is that like higher end?

00:15:15.620 --> 00:15:17.469
Is that more the middle um?

00:15:18.350 --> 00:15:23.408
no that was something like that was real close to the middle yeah maybe a bit above the middle, I think.

00:15:23.870 --> 00:15:24.331
In total.

00:15:24.331 --> 00:15:35.537
You know we offer nine packages really, with number nine being the nuclear variant and and number one being a lot of public record data just done correctly.

00:15:35.537 --> 00:15:50.811
What I mean by that is, if you think about pre-employment screening and the $29.95 super background search that you see advertised all over the web, you want to do a background check in your neighbor, so you go to whatever Zippy search and it's $19.95.

00:15:50.811 --> 00:15:59.710
Those are data brokers sell information 1995.

00:15:59.710 --> 00:16:00.692
Those are data brokers sell information.

00:16:00.692 --> 00:16:01.556
What they also sell you is a disclaimer.

00:16:01.556 --> 00:16:07.296
So there's several asterisks that say based on where we looked, which was under my iPhone based on where we looked, these are the records that we found.

00:16:07.296 --> 00:16:14.075
And so they limit what they're looking at and they buy data that's already available and it's always incomplete.

00:16:14.075 --> 00:16:15.918
It's grossly incomplete.

00:16:15.918 --> 00:16:18.673
They come up with things like a national background check.

00:16:18.673 --> 00:16:20.812
There is no national background check.

00:16:20.812 --> 00:16:23.011
Our records are firewalled off.

00:16:23.011 --> 00:16:27.090
They're very difficult to find If you're using someone with a common name.

00:16:27.090 --> 00:16:28.475
It's a nightmare.

00:16:28.475 --> 00:16:33.105
You have to have skills, processes, tools to do that stuff.

00:16:33.105 --> 00:16:37.909
And so when we offer a low end package, we do the public record thing correctly.

00:16:37.909 --> 00:16:42.368
We figure out all the places where records could exist and we search all of them.

00:16:42.368 --> 00:16:48.711
We don't use a data broker who says this is what I've got and no, it's not complete and it'll never be complete.

00:16:48.711 --> 00:16:54.432
They try and be a little more artful with their disclaimers than what I was saying, but that's.

00:16:54.432 --> 00:16:56.416
The reality is, there isn't a place to go.

00:16:56.416 --> 00:17:05.186
The CSI shows and the person with the cool haircut on the keyboard who finds everything in five seconds oh, look at this.

00:17:05.186 --> 00:17:13.617
That's a fantasy, and the record system in this country is becoming more wild than ever before.

00:17:13.617 --> 00:17:17.955
So you can get the records, but you have to pay to get them.

00:17:17.955 --> 00:17:23.114
You have to search a certain way, you have to pay, whether or not you get a response or not.

00:17:23.585 --> 00:17:32.073
These municipalities have figured out this is a money-making adventure now, and so freedom has a price and you have to know who would have jurisdiction.

00:17:32.073 --> 00:17:34.025
We have issues all the time.

00:17:34.025 --> 00:17:46.415
We have a club that's in Memphis, and it was a struggle with them to say well, you want us to tell you a little bit more, and I said no, because you sit on the border of Mississippi, arkansas and Tennessee.

00:17:46.415 --> 00:17:51.396
So people have records, and the Arkansas records are not available in Tennessee.

00:17:51.396 --> 00:17:53.933
No matter how hard I look, I can't find them.

00:17:53.933 --> 00:18:00.107
They're walled off and if you don't want me to look in those places, don't complain when somebody you talk about.

00:18:00.107 --> 00:18:07.255
You know you and I have talked about how members will spend all this time doing homework and research on each other and come up with the dirt.

00:18:07.255 --> 00:18:10.888
Well, they don't have that restriction, so don't restrict me.

00:18:10.888 --> 00:18:12.832
So you really have to be complete with it.

00:18:12.872 --> 00:18:18.440
But within that package the jumper was probably very near the middle, maybe a little above the middle.

00:18:18.440 --> 00:18:24.979
We look at the sphere and we do that literally like an onion, one layer at a time.

00:18:24.979 --> 00:18:27.073
Do you want this additional layer of searching?

00:18:27.073 --> 00:18:36.291
The bad news with the additional layer is you're spending a little bit of money and a lot of what I'm finding when I go to that next level is stuff I've already found.

00:18:36.291 --> 00:18:37.474
That's okay.

00:18:37.474 --> 00:18:57.372
I'm going to find unique stuff, but each time we move a little bit further out, it's probably the law of diminishing returns, so pricing of our packages sort of also decreases, even though we've got a lot of information that we have to find a second time or a third time or a fourth time.

00:18:57.914 --> 00:19:17.038
It's just the nature of the beast In terms of the information we presented and then we presented in a format where things that we think are in the terms responsive, things that we think would actually make someone pause or that they would want to evaluate, we try and put those toward the front of the report.

00:19:17.038 --> 00:19:34.809
And so if there are things that we find that we know you're going to want to know what is their court record history, for instance right, if they are posting things that are inflammatory directly, obviously those are going to go near the top and we keep going and presenting it in an order Because of the volume of what we find.

00:19:34.809 --> 00:19:41.625
Most of our report is comprised of links, and those are links to data that we found.

00:19:41.625 --> 00:19:47.698
So it's definitely a data point about Denny Corby, but it really isn't going to make any difference.

00:19:47.698 --> 00:19:53.557
It's yet another address history in yet another database that's on the web, right.

00:19:53.557 --> 00:19:55.432
So it's something that we found.

00:19:55.432 --> 00:20:06.817
It's the fact that you had a MySpace and there's a directory that said that you had a MySpace years ago, and that kind of information usually isn't contributory toward making the decision.

00:20:07.184 --> 00:20:11.895
But again, we disclose everything that we find and we don't evaluate it, we just present it.

00:20:11.895 --> 00:20:27.190
We don't evaluate it, we just present it and you know there are things that you can say in Texas that you probably can't socially say in Northern California.

00:20:27.190 --> 00:20:31.733
We're just a diverse country and the behaviors and norms in one place are insults in another.

00:20:31.733 --> 00:20:40.040
And so I have to leave it up to the clubs to sort of say you know what matters to us and remember, we're not just about yes or no, it's not just red or green.

00:20:40.040 --> 00:20:48.722
Sometimes there's a conversation to be had, so we'll provide data and someone will say well, this is an unfortunate thing, but it was five years ago.

00:20:48.722 --> 00:20:55.855
It's not the best, but I'm going to bring it up to the member and I'm going to remind them that at the club, something like that would really be frowned upon.

00:20:55.855 --> 00:21:10.045
And to make sure that you're clear that you're joining a club where the behaviors are different than those and you set the tone, how about you have that conversation and then they defend themselves and say no, I'm going to act however I want.

00:21:10.045 --> 00:21:14.371
Oh, cool, Now I just need to give out your unfit for membership, you know.

00:21:14.371 --> 00:21:20.641
And it gives the clubs opportunities to work with that data in different ways to help them with the decision making process.

00:21:21.226 --> 00:21:29.971
It's not always a layup, the guy that jumps off the ship I'm betting there's some clubs that would say he jumps off the cabana roof into the pool a couple of times.

00:21:29.971 --> 00:21:35.635
You know, with the Jagermeister it's OK and other clubs it would be.

00:21:35.635 --> 00:21:36.868
This is not the right time.

00:21:36.868 --> 00:21:38.509
I think that that's a big part of it.

00:21:38.509 --> 00:21:41.972
What's going on in your life and is this the right time?

00:21:42.746 --> 00:21:49.432
I had a club who came back and called me and said you found that the police were at their house four times in the last year.

00:21:49.432 --> 00:21:55.446
I did yes, that's correct, that's the data.

00:21:55.446 --> 00:21:56.633
Four times the police were called to the house.

00:21:56.633 --> 00:21:57.336
I don't have more than that.

00:21:57.336 --> 00:21:58.502
That department doesn't tell me the nature of the runs.

00:21:58.502 --> 00:22:01.576
But what's going on in the house?

00:22:01.576 --> 00:22:03.241
The police are coming four times.

00:22:03.241 --> 00:22:04.705
How often have the police been to your house, danny?

00:22:04.705 --> 00:22:06.529
Probably a lot in your case.

00:22:06.529 --> 00:22:15.015
Regular folk usually don't need the police a lot and four doesn't four times stand out.

00:22:15.015 --> 00:22:17.192
So what's going on?

00:22:17.192 --> 00:22:25.319
So when you add four times to some other behaviors that say maybe I'm not a perfect fit, it makes it a lot easier.

00:22:25.826 --> 00:22:30.671
But that's I think that's the whole point of being exclusive, right, that's the whole point of you.

00:22:30.671 --> 00:22:39.126
Have to exclude sometimes and you have to set a baseline, and I think there's probably even situations where now is not the right time for you to join our club.

00:22:39.126 --> 00:22:46.115
We're being a little bit choosy and you have more defects than most of our normal members.

00:22:46.115 --> 00:22:48.712
Why am I rolling the dice on you right now?

00:22:48.712 --> 00:22:52.253
Maybe we'll see in a couple of years if it changes.

00:22:52.253 --> 00:22:59.756
That's a decision that they're going to have to make, but I think I think you have people think about it this way.

00:23:00.005 --> 00:23:05.157
Would you invest money with someone that was showing signs that they don't follow the rules?

00:23:05.157 --> 00:23:10.626
And also, you found out I told you from an investment due diligence standpoint they were.

00:23:10.626 --> 00:23:12.228
They had the police in their house four times.

00:23:12.228 --> 00:23:14.068
No, they don't have a criminal record for the shooting.

00:23:14.068 --> 00:23:15.589
They wouldn't have taken away a handcuff.

00:23:15.589 --> 00:23:21.373
Would that make you feel super good about handing them $3 million to start a new venture?

00:23:21.373 --> 00:23:22.553
Probably not.

00:23:22.553 --> 00:23:27.675
At a minimum, there'd be a conversation, right, and you'd hope that there'd be a really quick answer.

00:23:27.675 --> 00:23:28.415
And you know what.

00:23:28.415 --> 00:23:30.836
You can always call me back and say this is the answer they gave me.

00:23:30.836 --> 00:23:31.837
Can you help me verify that?

00:23:31.837 --> 00:23:33.519
That's always a possibility.

00:23:33.519 --> 00:23:39.020
Clubs can always call and say here's the additional information we obtained about that.

00:23:39.020 --> 00:23:40.201
Can you provide the insight?

00:23:40.201 --> 00:23:40.942
Sometimes I can't.

00:23:40.942 --> 00:23:42.403
Sometimes there isn't more to get.

00:23:46.106 --> 00:23:48.534
But a lot of times there is once I know something else.

00:23:48.534 --> 00:23:49.195
I was saying this earlier.

00:23:49.195 --> 00:24:07.772
I feel like now is the time for clubs to try so many new things and like push the barrier a little bit, or even like now is the time to, if they might want to do a little bit more of like investigative, backgroundy, fact checking on their members.

00:24:07.772 --> 00:24:09.056
Like now is the time there's.

00:24:09.056 --> 00:24:10.846
There's hasn't been a better.

00:24:10.846 --> 00:24:18.166
You know, demand is so much much higher than supply for clubs and membership and the waitlist.

00:24:18.166 --> 00:24:27.184
Like now is the time more than ever, to be pickier with your members, because you can, because if you don't like someone, it's not like you don't have a have a, have a waitlist Now.

00:24:27.184 --> 00:24:32.256
You have so many people waiting to come in, just wait, so why not?

00:24:32.256 --> 00:24:33.904
This is the time now to do it.

00:24:33.964 --> 00:24:35.968
Well, listen, I agree with you and the industry is the time now to do it.

00:24:35.968 --> 00:24:39.294
Well, listen, I agree with you and the industry is doing great and it's fantastic.

00:24:39.294 --> 00:24:42.819
And the number of clubs we contact with waitlist is almost 100 percent.

00:24:42.819 --> 00:24:48.627
I'm sure the number of clubs that contact us, it's almost 100 percent.

00:24:48.627 --> 00:24:49.749
And some have waitlist in absolutely every category.

00:24:49.749 --> 00:24:52.311
Some have maybe one or two categories that are open, of maybe one or two categories that are open.

00:24:53.252 --> 00:25:18.174
But remember, despite it being a good time to be choosy, a big part of using Kennis is because you don't want to put yourself in a position where, as a club, you just decided not to look for the bad information and then the bad event happens and board members love to say well, we've never had a mass shooting at our club, so we're going to assume that that's just not the kind of thing that happens here.

00:25:18.174 --> 00:25:21.348
At whatever Hearst you know we're, we don't do things.

00:25:21.348 --> 00:25:24.876
It would be in poor taste to have a mass shooting and none of our members do that.

00:25:24.876 --> 00:25:27.512
Ok, what's that always just about a mass shooting?

00:25:27.512 --> 00:25:31.769
I can't tell you how many lawsuits are filed against clubs because of behavior of a member.

00:25:31.769 --> 00:25:35.092
And look at anybody that you want to.

00:25:35.092 --> 00:25:36.953
Look at a celebrity that has broken.

00:25:36.953 --> 00:25:42.159
Look at a media, look at somebody who's been involved in a mass shooting.

00:25:42.159 --> 00:25:43.720
What's the first thing the media does?

00:25:43.720 --> 00:25:45.501
They do exactly what we do.

00:25:45.501 --> 00:25:49.007
They do their version of it.

00:25:49.007 --> 00:25:52.436
But they dig into the past and they try and say look at all the predicted things that were leading up to this.

00:25:52.436 --> 00:26:02.515
Every time our government, the people that are trying to protect us, had an incident, and the incident goes through, somebody in the media will say look at all the predicted things.

00:26:02.515 --> 00:26:05.535
And the government failed to catch this person.

00:26:05.535 --> 00:26:07.231
They knew this person was a problem, right?

00:26:07.231 --> 00:26:12.392
This person was going to blow up a building or this person was going to shoot somebody and you could see that it was coming.

00:26:12.392 --> 00:26:16.679
That's exactly what we're talking about going to shoot somebody and you could see that it was coming.

00:26:16.679 --> 00:26:18.000
That's exactly what we're talking about.

00:26:18.019 --> 00:26:25.173
So, over and above refining and honing the culture of your club by letting in people that truly are going to fit in the club, forget about that.

00:26:25.173 --> 00:26:31.797
It's the reasonableness of saying we just choose not to look, we're just going to go with recommendations, because we always have.

00:26:31.797 --> 00:26:34.851
Clearly, the world has changed.

00:26:34.851 --> 00:26:46.130
If you look around, there is no organized, structured anything from employment to volunteering that doesn't have some level of fact-based vetting going on.

00:26:46.130 --> 00:26:57.258
Clubs are just fine and they're uniquely positioned for a fraction of the initiation fee to meet that and keep the wolves at bay.

00:26:57.644 --> 00:27:01.746
A lot of the time you're going to find predictive stuff and those are the people that end up breaking.

00:27:01.746 --> 00:27:03.609
And I know you and I have talked about this.

00:27:03.609 --> 00:27:14.609
Your strata in society has nothing to do with your odds of having a mental health condition, and in no way am I picking on people that have a mental health condition.

00:27:14.609 --> 00:27:21.155
But when people that have a mental health condition and in no way am I picking on people that have a mental health condition but when people don't have a mental health condition for somebody, somebody's still going to fail.

00:27:21.196 --> 00:27:23.105
If there were predictive values and the cause really doesn't matter, does it?

00:27:23.105 --> 00:27:32.134
If it was somewhat predictable to say this person really isn't suited for membership, so at a minimum you've got to do it in hopes of getting that.

00:27:32.134 --> 00:27:36.246
Let's say it's one in 10, let's say it's one in 15.

00:27:36.246 --> 00:27:40.856
Members that are hard enough, we send something back and it's a hard enough not fit for membership.

00:27:40.856 --> 00:27:43.429
That alone is the value.

00:27:43.429 --> 00:27:47.585
And if it's bad enough, if somebody actually gets hurt at the hands of a member.

00:27:47.585 --> 00:27:49.066
What is the price associated with that?

00:27:49.066 --> 00:28:01.670
That would be 50 years of canistese, 100 years of canistese, versus one situation where a staff member got hurt, a guest got hurt, another member got hurt.

00:28:01.670 --> 00:28:04.895
You know, come on, it's a no-brainer.

00:28:04.895 --> 00:28:10.916
But the rest of society has looked at this and said we're 100% adapting it because it works.

00:28:10.916 --> 00:28:12.661
The predicted value holds true.

00:28:13.301 --> 00:28:15.054
And what I said about anti-fragile it's true.

00:28:15.054 --> 00:28:21.574
We are terrible at predicting, we're just awful at it, and everybody likes to say they're a good judge of character.

00:28:21.574 --> 00:28:23.038
There is no such thing.

00:28:23.038 --> 00:28:24.741
There is no such thing.

00:28:24.741 --> 00:28:27.557
That's just arrogance and listen.

00:28:27.557 --> 00:28:29.613
I used to do it too, until I started seeing.

00:28:29.613 --> 00:28:33.230
You know, my judgment, combined with facts, was a lot better than my judgment.

00:28:33.230 --> 00:28:34.114
And I'm really smart.

00:28:34.114 --> 00:28:35.218
Just ask me.

00:28:35.980 --> 00:28:36.742
How smart are you, Paul?

00:28:37.263 --> 00:28:38.146
I'm uber smart.

00:28:38.146 --> 00:28:40.212
It's kind of scary.

00:28:40.212 --> 00:28:47.940
Plus, the coolest reason to work with Canis is to tell people we have a guy in Detroit that takes care of these things.

00:28:47.940 --> 00:28:52.541
You don't want to say that you need to call the guy from detroit.

00:28:55.417 --> 00:29:10.266
That's where my yankees at so there's a phrase that I heard and then you have your way of saying it and it's actually come up more.

00:29:10.266 --> 00:29:16.839
It's more common than I thought would be and it's my members are better investigators.

00:29:19.023 --> 00:29:24.621
Yes, so we like to talk about books, you and I, malcolm Galwell.

00:29:25.222 --> 00:29:27.635
Yep 10,000 Hours, right, you and I yeah, welcome goldwell.

00:29:27.635 --> 00:29:27.715
Yep.

00:29:27.715 --> 00:29:28.176
10 000 hours, right.

00:29:28.176 --> 00:29:34.674
So there, there are people who will invest 10 000 hours in digging and snooping.

00:29:34.674 --> 00:29:36.559
It's a variant of what we do.

00:29:36.559 --> 00:29:37.903
You got to put the time in.

00:29:37.903 --> 00:29:45.211
It's not the same, because you're usually stuck with google to do your digging, but you can do the same thing.

00:29:45.211 --> 00:29:50.674
Somebody can spend endless amounts of time saying who is Denny, who's Denny Spear?

00:29:50.674 --> 00:29:52.298
Now, let me start looking into those people.

00:29:52.298 --> 00:30:00.634
Let me connect the dots manually on my own, and a lot of times they can find it to social media, but sometimes they'll get the public records and things like that.

00:30:01.497 --> 00:30:03.481
Your members also have the benefit of gossip.

00:30:03.481 --> 00:30:19.704
So in a lot of tight communities and this doesn't apply to all clubs, because you can't you can't say that you're in metropolitan um, los angeles or atlanta, and it's a.

00:30:19.704 --> 00:30:21.213
You know, it's a tight-knit community.

00:30:21.213 --> 00:30:23.809
It's not a tight-knit community there's people moving in and out all the time.

00:30:23.809 --> 00:30:31.363
There's people from all over the the world is becoming much more transient people moving for work opportunities, marriage, whatever.

00:30:31.983 --> 00:30:38.071
But when you do get a tight-knit community with a club, in it, there's a lot of information and there is a lot of gossip.

00:30:38.071 --> 00:30:48.482
This is interesting to me because you will have clubs who will take action on someone's application based on gossip said by other members.

00:30:48.482 --> 00:30:52.961
In a way, it kind of works, but it's also kind of broken.

00:30:52.961 --> 00:31:00.849
It works because if the members that are telling you this stuff are concerned about it and there aren't any good members, well then that's a pretty good indicator.

00:31:00.849 --> 00:31:19.237
The person's probably not going to work out right, but you're willing to toss their application over those conversations which could be contrived and maybe aren't based on a lot of facts or valid information, but clubs will act on that.

00:31:19.237 --> 00:31:26.849
So the good news is it gives you an opportunity to keep people out that aren't going to be a good fit or have potentially exposure and liability.

00:31:27.553 --> 00:31:33.221
So you're doing the ultimate correct thing, you think, but you're doing it without fact.

00:31:33.221 --> 00:31:37.115
You're doing it based on somebody's subjective interpretation of things.

00:31:37.115 --> 00:31:59.039
So unless they can say this, you know I had a club who called me and said there's someone who said that this person's teen son was sexually aggressive with another community member's daughter and this is something that they're thinking about calling the police, and I said I don't know, I can't find a fact.

00:31:59.039 --> 00:32:10.296
So if that's true, that's terrible, and if it's true, it's not in a searchable fashion, and it sounds like something that somebody said.

00:32:10.296 --> 00:32:10.897
So is it true?

00:32:10.897 --> 00:32:12.564
And then this is all third party, right?

00:32:12.564 --> 00:32:27.616
This is a third party for somebody else who knows the mom of the girl and and I said, no, we'll look, we'll look, but there's nothing floating around in public domain that points to that one official that says it actually happened and somebody was convicted.

00:32:29.459 --> 00:32:34.624
So long answer so no, no, no, because it's, it's.

00:32:34.624 --> 00:32:40.679
It was just fascinating that when you know, it just came up in conversation.

00:32:40.679 --> 00:32:46.336
Um, because for me, you know, I, when chatting with people, things come up, and you know, so it was.

00:32:46.336 --> 00:32:50.453
It was talking about the vetting, because I was asking they had a big wait list.

00:32:50.453 --> 00:32:52.500
All this and multiple times.

00:32:52.500 --> 00:32:56.220
So do you guys have like a vetting process or anything?

00:32:56.220 --> 00:32:59.897
And our members are pretty good at that.

00:33:01.481 --> 00:33:05.397
All right, I'll give you an interesting story.

00:33:05.397 --> 00:33:15.595
I actually told this a couple times before to prospective clubs, the Detroit Lions, who are doing much, much better, who are doing much, much better.

00:33:15.595 --> 00:33:24.141
But in the past the Detroit Lions had a coach who came in and this is an employment situation, so it's governed by different rules than the private club standard.

00:33:24.141 --> 00:33:27.138
But they had a coach well-known.

00:33:27.138 --> 00:33:30.839
Kate McPatricia came over from the Patriots, took over as head coach.

00:33:30.839 --> 00:33:48.817
He was here, I think, for a year and a half when a reporter from the Detroit Free Press called the GM of the Lions and just said did you know, matt Patricia was arrested for sexual assault down in Texas when he was in college and it was just stymied right.

00:33:48.817 --> 00:33:57.094
And so, instead of saying what he should have, which is I'm aware of it number one, number two, he was not convicted.

00:33:57.094 --> 00:34:06.453
And number three, from an employment perspective, I can't even consider that he was not convicted of anything, and it happened a long, long time ago and I'm aware of it.

00:34:06.453 --> 00:34:10.815
The problem was the Lions were not aware of it, so they brought him over.

00:34:10.815 --> 00:34:15.038
It sounds like they didn't vet him at all because he was already in the NFL.

00:34:15.038 --> 00:34:16.675
He was already known, right.

00:34:16.675 --> 00:34:18.335
Everybody recognized his face.

00:34:18.335 --> 00:34:21.277
Everybody knew who he was, so they brought him in without vetting him.

00:34:22.532 --> 00:34:23.516
And here's the difference.

00:34:23.516 --> 00:34:25.289
It's the same thing that you're talking about.

00:34:25.289 --> 00:34:30.552
Where you have these members that will invest all kinds of energy digging up dirt, who's the last to know?

00:34:30.552 --> 00:34:33.902
In this case, the alliance management, but the club's management.

00:34:35.090 --> 00:34:37.836
Hennis, affords clubs and companies like mine.

00:34:37.836 --> 00:34:40.742
Afford a club an opportunity to avoid that from happening.

00:34:40.742 --> 00:34:44.074
Isn't it much better to say hey?

00:34:44.074 --> 00:34:50.856
A member approached me and I was able to tell them we're aware of that and that was not a factor that was critical in the decision making.

00:34:50.856 --> 00:35:06.460
So, yes, we're aware of it and yes, they're a member, or, better yet, you take care of it and you never have to be on the flip side of that coin, which is, oh, we didn't know, and that's really bad because we never would have let them in it.

00:35:06.460 --> 00:35:07.163
Just you know.

00:35:07.163 --> 00:35:16.202
It doesn't make sense to go without saying we did the due diligence, because whatever my team is going to do, we're going to run laps around that number, no matter how much time they put into it.

00:35:16.202 --> 00:35:21.119
If you're giving us a package that allows us to do the complete search, there's no way around it.

00:35:24.411 --> 00:35:35.248
Do you ever find things that make the person better like people who like underplay their stuff 100, so so it's like people like, oh, this isn't this, but you find out.

00:35:35.248 --> 00:35:37.778
It's like oh, they donated a billion dollars to this.

00:35:37.778 --> 00:35:38.623
Oh, they did that.

00:35:38.623 --> 00:35:40.610
Like, oh, I didn't realize they're responsible for this.

00:35:40.610 --> 00:35:46.275
Do you ever get clubs that are surprised by how much better members are or people are that are applying?

00:35:47.137 --> 00:35:54.182
Absolutely so two things we usually don't get feedback on members, good or bad.

00:35:54.202 --> 00:35:57.467
Sometimes I'll ask a question if it's borderline bad.

00:35:57.467 --> 00:36:00.989
Or they might say, hey, is there anything else with this account?

00:36:00.989 --> 00:36:09.898
Or there was a person on Twitter who was attacking a prospective member a lot and they said can you give us any context on that person?

00:36:09.898 --> 00:36:11.855
We'll give you a couple bucks to figure out.

00:36:11.855 --> 00:36:12.617
Tell me that person.

00:36:12.617 --> 00:36:15.534
And it turns out that's what that person does is just attacks people.

00:36:15.534 --> 00:36:18.005
And we did find a nexus in their backgrounds.

00:36:18.005 --> 00:36:19.500
I think they worked together at one point.

00:36:19.500 --> 00:36:28.561
So I don't know, I don't think it was very credible, Not for me to decide, but the idea is you know what?

00:36:28.561 --> 00:36:30.177
I'm sorry, Danny, I'm losing my train of thought here.

00:36:32.572 --> 00:36:34.920
Finding good people, and then, oh, and then you don't really.

00:36:34.920 --> 00:36:39.931
And then it was one of those, as I was saying, the question I probably I figured no, but clubs aren't going to come back Like yo.

00:36:39.931 --> 00:36:41.858
This person is so much better than we thought.

00:36:44.795 --> 00:36:45.639
Yeah, you're absolutely right.

00:36:45.639 --> 00:36:50.012
It does happen where it's the exact opposite and they say we really didn't realize.

00:36:50.012 --> 00:36:54.193
You know how good of a patron of the community this person is.

00:36:54.193 --> 00:36:58.474
They're very humble and quiet and it turns out they do an awful lot and we've got a real treasure.

00:36:58.474 --> 00:36:59.175
Yes, absolutely.

00:36:59.175 --> 00:37:03.097
I don't know Cause we were.

00:37:03.237 --> 00:37:04.557
We were just talking about like bad stuff.

00:37:04.557 --> 00:37:13.681
I was like I wonder if clubs if you just find all this amazing information and club was like wow, he's too good for here Our membership our membership to eat them.

00:37:13.681 --> 00:37:16.161
Eat them alive, Sir, you don't want to be here.

00:37:17.103 --> 00:37:24.846
I think the focus is clearly on making sure that they're they're bad, bad things, as opposed to confirming all the good things or finding even more good things.

00:37:24.846 --> 00:37:26.407
But yeah, listen, there's.

00:37:26.407 --> 00:37:31.728
There's far more good people that are true, with their intention, who join clubs and their own.

00:37:35.759 --> 00:37:36.661
What should clubs do?

00:37:36.661 --> 00:37:40.621
So, going back, you know the, the, the membership is.

00:37:40.621 --> 00:37:44.126

345: Predictive Indicators & Data Breaches w/ Paul Dank - Kennis